The Australian Electricity Industry and Geosequestration – Some Abatement Scenarios

Geosequestration is currently promoted by some in industry and government as the only realistic option to achieve major reductions in the Australian electricity sector’s greenhouse gas emissions. However its technical feasibility, cost effectiveness, theoretical abatement potential and possible environmental risks are not yet known. While there is clearly value in supporting development of this technology, such support needs to be directed by risk-based technical assessments of this, and other possible abatement options. In this paper we explore one aspect of such a technical assessment – the theoretical abatement potential and timing of geosequestration of coal-fired electricity emissions. This is done using scenario analysis drawing on Australian geosequestration data provided by the GEODISC program of the Australian Petroleum Cooperative Research Centre. For this study we assume the technology is proven to be feasible, cost effective and environmentally safe. Nevertheless, our scenarios suggest that geosequestration may have only limited ability to reduce coal-fired emissions below the present in the absence of wider abatement action. This is mainly because of the gradual rate at which it is likely to be introduced and poor source to sink matching for some major emission regions. These findings certainly support the view that geosequestration does not permit ‘business-as-usual’ growth in electricity supply and demand. In our scenarios emissions fell below 1999 levels only when coal-fired electricity generation grew at much lower annual rates than are currently projected. Thus even assuming the current technical, safety and cost problems with geosequestration can be solved, longer-term reductions in electricity-related emissions below present levels are still likely to require significant contributions from other abatement technologies, such as energy efficiency, efficient gasfired CCGT and renewable generation.